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Has housing hit bottom? A lot of people seem to think so. I don't. I think houses are still too expensive and have a long way to go before they become "affordable." In the latest issue of BusinessWeek I found a short snippet that supports my view.

If history is any guide, using data from the seven previous housing cycles since 1959, Hugh Moore concludes that the sector will fall further -- and land hard. Take housing starts. In the past, they fell an average 51% from peak to trough. Currently, housing starts are off about 30%. Recession might be on the way, as well. In six of the seven cycles, when starts fell more than 25%, the economy tanked.

In the same seven cycles, the amount people spent on new housing as a percent of gross domestic product fell an average 28% from market peak to trough. Currently, that ratio has fallen 10.5% from its fourth-quarter peak.

History also shows that housing corrections take an average 27 months. Thus, the current doldrums may linger a year or more. She notes, that month-to-month housing stats producing relief rallies are "just noise."

Like I said, I think this downturn has ways to go.