Programmer's Investing Notebook

Excellent article on state of the housing... and things to come.

The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.

The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“When all these people see their mortgage payment and it’s up 40 or 50 percent, they’re going to say, `We can’t stay in this house,”’ Pimco’s Kiesel said. “And there are millions of people in this situation.”

Some owners are selling their homes at “fire sale” prices to avoid foreclosure after seeing their adjustable mortgage rates spike, said Lawrence White, an economics professor at the Stern School of Business.

“Prices will continue to soften for as long as we have distressed sellers,” White said. Some regions of the U.S. could see price declines of 10 percent in the next six to 12 months, he said. The slump probably won’t cause a recession, he said.

Reference
Rate Rise Pushes Housing, Economy to `Blood Bath' - Bloomberg.com: Worldwide