My Investing Notebook

Posts Tagged 'stocks'

Where to be in 2010? Investor picks. January 9th, 2010
Bets for a Sagging Dollar January 3rd, 2010
My Feb 2007 Stocks and ETFs January 30th, 2007
My Aug 2006 Stock and ETF Holdings August 8th, 2006
My 2006 Q1 Stocks January 29th, 2006

Where to be in 2010? Investor picks.

January 9th, 2010 | In investing, My Stock Picks | Comments Off

Just the type of an article I like in the latest Barron’s, The Best ETF Bets for 2010

John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
“A healthy dose of cash and other forms of fixed income may be the best prescription for 2010.”

Mauldin recommends putting money temporarily in short-maturity corporate and municipal bond ETFs like Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) and Market Vectors Short Municipal (SMB).

He sees the economy headed for a second recessionary dip later this year, and so recommends rotating into defensive funds — particularly, high-dividend-payers like Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) or iShares S&P Global Utilities Index Fund (JXI).

Mauldin also likes health-care funds, especially those with biotechnology exposure such as Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV). He is bullish on biotech: One of the purer plays is iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund (IBB).

“Wait for the real buying opportunity.”

Longer term, Mauldin recommends gradually shifting portfolio weights from securities of developed countries whose valuations “are out of whack” toward higher-growth markets through ETFs like iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) or Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO).

“Be patient and wait for markets to come to you,” he counsels. “Patience is a position, too.”

Stephen Blumenthal, President, CMG Capital Management Group
“If the recent past was the equivalent of a bungee ride, the year ahead will be more like a roller coaster. The market should continue chugging higher until April or May, when he expects a plunge, perhaps followed by another upturn before year’s end.”

“To cope with that uncertainty, it’s best to play fixed-income-based ETFs during the first quarter at least.” favorite vehicle is SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

Anticipating prolonged weakness in the U.S. dollar, Blumenthal recommends gradual acquisition of Pacific/Asia commodity producers/users represented by ETFs like iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund (EPP). He finds the iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (EWA) particularly attractive as a simultaneous play on commodity-rich Australia, its relatively strong currency, and China. A rebound in China, the world’s largest commodity consumer, should lift Market Vectors Steel (SLX) and Market Vectors Coal (KOL) as well as agriculture. CMG recommends Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO), PowerShares Water Resources (PHO) and, for exposure to so-called soft commodities like rice and cotton, Elements/Rogers International Commodity Agriculture ETN (RJA).

“Sell the rallies and trade tactically until we get a correction,” Blumenthal advises. In other words, take profits when common measures of investor sentiment are bullish, and shop for bargains on market dips.

Thomas Orecchio, Modera Wealth Mgmt.

He uses international bond funds like SPDR Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) to balance U.S. dollar-heavy portfolios.

Even though their share prices have run up lately, developing countries have better growth prospects than developed economies, he says. Modera also is rotating into international bond funds like iShares S&P/Citi International Treasury Bond (IGOV) and SPDR Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) for fixed income, but gradually.

This year, Orecchio expects to see many more new ETFs like the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker (QAI), which uses hedging techniques to offset risk

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Bets for a Sagging Dollar

January 3rd, 2010 | In My Stock Picks | Comments Off

There is a very good article on investing in the latest Kiplinger’s (Feb 2010) “Make A Buck Off A Sagging Dollar.” Their view is that the dollar is on the decline, and you better diversify. They have a few suggestions how you can do that.

I also think the long term the dollar does not look so good. Especially when comparing it to emerging markets.

Read on…

You can invest in emerging-markets bonds through Pimco Emerging Local Bond (PLBDX). “Pimco invests in 15 markets, including Poland, South Africa, Mexico, and Thailand.” It’s on the expensive side, though, with an annual cost of 1.35%. I try to stay under 1%, but this might be worth the price.

For a lower cost alternative, check Wisdom Dreyfus Emerging Fund (CEW). “This exchange-traded fund, launched last summer, uses futures contracts to provide exposure to money-market rates of 11 emerging markets currencies, including the Polish zloty, Chinese yuan and Chilean peso.” Annual fee is 0.55%.

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My Feb 2007 Stocks and ETFs

January 30th, 2007 | In investing | Comments Off

Here are my current holdings in the beginning of 2007. My strategy now is still go with a defensive lineup and also diversify more internationally. I also decreased my position in energy. I’m going to stick to my strategy and even increase my exposure to ETFs and opt for less risk than investing in individual stocks.

AIG (AIG) » Insurance: $68: A giant that’s beaten up a bit. Should recover. Quality stock..

General Electric (GE) » Conglomerate: $36: Quality company with good management. Diversified. Looks cheap.

Kraft (KFT) » Food: My recent addition. Company makes good products, moves into more healthy oriented products. Good international player.

Matsushita (MC) » Consumer Electronics: Panasonic makes the best plasmas and cameras. Good growth potential.

Medtronic (MDT) » Health Products: It’s beaten down now but a quality company with very good growth potential.

Pfizer (PFE) » Drugs: One of the biggest and beaten down. Good pipeline.

Time Warner (TWX) » Media & Internet Services: I believe content is the king and will eventually provide the most value. I’m losing my patience with AOL and I might unload in the near future.

Verizon (VZ) » Telecom: I’m still optimistic about the fiber rollout. The best wireless provider.

Yahoo (YHOO) » Internet Services: I think Yahoo is cheap compared to Google. Good search technology. Very good growth potential. Cheap.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) » Energy: The biggest energy player. Safe bet.

My current ETFs

Emerging Market Index (EEM) » International: It slowed down recently but still a good diverifier.

Europe Index Fund (EFA) » Europe: Recommended by S&P, good diversified holding.

Pacific, Excluding Japan (EPP) » Pacific: Recommended by S&P. A lot of potential growth.

Japan Index (EWJ) » Japan: Japan is recovering. Recommended by S&P.

US Telecom Sector (IYZ) » Telecom Sector: Telecom is a good defensive sector.

S&P Midcap 400 (MDY) » Midcaps: Recommended by S&P.

Spider Divident ETF (SDY) » Divident Focused: I am a big fan of companies that keep increasing their dividents. This ETF is focusing on that.

Vanguard Divident ETF (VIG) » Divident Focused: Similar story to SDY, divident focused with a little different lineup.

S&P Index (SPY) » S&P: Over the years, the S&P index beats most of the funds.

Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) » Energy: Is energy ever going to go down? Probably, but not anytime soon it looks like.

Vanguard Health Care (VHT) » Health Care: Baby boomers are starting to retire. Health care has very good growth potential.

Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) » Consumer Staples: Even in a slow economy, people still need to buy everyday products. Good defensive player.

Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) » Bond: I hold it because it’s recommended by S&P. I do think that diversification in bonds is imporant.

Lehman 1-3yr Tresuries (SHY) » Bonds: Recommended by S&P.

Whoa, that took me some time. I have 3-5% in most of these, with around 7% for the S&P Index.

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My Aug 2006 Stock and ETF Holdings

August 8th, 2006 | In investing | Comments Off

Here are my current holdings. My strategy now is to go with a more defensive lineup. I believe the economy is going to slow in the next couple of months or even years. I like to go with quality stocks and stocks that increase their dividends. I am also shifting into ETFs. I currently have around ten stocks and ten ETFs.

Here’s what my current stock holdings are:

AIG (AIG) » Insurance: A giant that’s beaten up a bit. Should recover. Quality stock..

General Electric (GE) » Conglomerate: Quality company with good management. Diversifed. Looks cheap.