My Investing Notebook :: Learning from the pros; making decisions on my own. ::

I’m kicking myself a bit. How come I did not know about the subprime lenders before?! I had been talking about a housing downturn for some time now. However, till last couple of weeks, when the meltdown actually began, I did not know that there were lenders that were doing subprime lending only. Had I known, I would have shorted New Centrury ( (NEW), almost bankrupt, from $30), Accredited ( (LEND)), Novastar ( (NFI) and Fremont ( (FMT)).

Either way, shorting is very risky. I tried shorting Countrywide ( (CFC)), but I only did it for a day. I chickened out after I read a favorable report on the stock. Countrywide, even though it has the biggest exposure to subprime, is a sound company. Plus, it’s already down a lot.

Housing downturn has only begun. I am still hoping things will settle down in 2008, but it might be even longer than that.