My Investing Notebook
:: Learning from the pros; making decisions on my own. ::
My Investing Notebook
:: Learning from the pros; making decisions on my own. ::
In the July 20th issue of Fortune, there is an interesting article on Case and Shiller. Mr. Shiller recently launched two products that “let investors make a pure directional bet on home prices.”
If you expect home prices to rise, buy Up Metro Market ( (UMM)), if you expect it to go down, buy Down Metro Market ( (DMM)).
I’m interested in seeing how it performs.
A great set of links on various topics related to investing. Check it out and select the ones you like. I’m sure you’ll find something for you.
ReferenceThe Investor’s Toolset: 57 Must-Have Web Resources, Ask The Advisor blog (excellent blog, BTW)
Here are my current holdings in the beginning of 2007. My strategy now is still go with a defensive lineup and also diversify more internationally. I also decreased my position in energy. I’m going to stick to my strategy and even increase my exposure to ETFs and opt for less risk than investing in individual stocks.
AIG (AIG) » Insurance: $68: A giant that’s beaten up a bit. Should recover. Quality stock..
General Electric (GE) » Conglomerate: $36: Quality company with good management. Diversified. Looks cheap.
Kraft (KFT) » Food: My recent addition. Company makes good products, moves into more healthy oriented products. Good international player.
Matsushita (MC) » Consumer Electronics: Panasonic makes the best plasmas and cameras. Good growth potential.
Medtronic (MDT) » Health Products: It’s beaten down now but a quality company with very good growth potential.
Pfizer (PFE) » Drugs: One of the biggest and beaten down. Good pipeline.
Time Warner (TWX) » Media & Internet Services: I believe content is the king and will eventually provide the most value. I’m losing my patience with AOL and I might unload in the near future.
Verizon (VZ) » Telecom: I’m still optimistic about the fiber rollout. The best wireless provider.
Yahoo (YHOO) » Internet Services: I think Yahoo is cheap compared to Google. Good search technology. Very good growth potential. Cheap.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) » Energy: The biggest energy player. Safe bet.
My current ETFs
Emerging Market Index (EEM) » International: It slowed down recently but still a good diverifier.
Europe Index Fund (EFA) » Europe: Recommended by S&P, good diversified holding.
Pacific, Excluding Japan (EPP) » Pacific: Recommended by S&P. A lot of potential growth.
Japan Index (EWJ) » Japan: Japan is recovering. Recommended by S&P.
US Telecom Sector (IYZ) » Telecom Sector: Telecom is a good defensive sector.
S&P Midcap 400 (MDY) » Midcaps: Recommended by S&P.
Spider Divident ETF (SDY) » Divident Focused: I am a big fan of companies that keep increasing their dividents. This ETF is focusing on that.
Vanguard Divident ETF (VIG) » Divident Focused: Similar story to SDY, divident focused with a little different lineup.
S&P Index (SPY) » S&P: Over the years, the S&P index beats most of the funds.
Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) » Energy: Is energy ever going to go down? Probably, but not anytime soon it looks like.
Vanguard Health Care (VHT) » Health Care: Baby boomers are starting to retire. Health care has very good growth potential.
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) » Consumer Staples: Even in a slow economy, people still need to buy everyday products. Good defensive player.
Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) » Bond: I hold it because it’s recommended by S&P. I do think that diversification in bonds is imporant.
Lehman 1-3yr Tresuries (SHY) » Bonds: Recommended by S&P.
Whoa, that took me some time. I have 3-5% in most of these, with around 7% for the S&P Index.
Here are my current holdings. My strategy now is to go with a more defensive lineup. I believe the economy is going to slow in the next couple of months or even years. I like to go with quality stocks and stocks that increase their dividends. I am also shifting into ETFs. I currently have around ten stocks and ten ETFs.
Here’s what my current stock holdings are:
AIG (AIG) » Insurance: A giant that’s beaten up a bit. Should recover. Quality stock..
General Electric (GE) » Conglomerate: Quality company with good management. Diversifed. Looks cheap.
Kraft (KFT) » Food: My recent addition. Company makes good products, moves into more healthy oriented products. Good international player.
Matsushita (MC) » Consumer Electronics: Panasonic makes the best plasmas and cameras. Good growth potential.
Medtronic (MDT) » Health Products: It’s beaten down now but a quality company with very good growth potential.
Pfizer (PFE) » Drugs: One of the biggest and beaten down. Good pipeline.
Time Warner (TWX) » Media & Internet Services: I believe content is the king and will eventually provide the most value. I’m losing my patience with AOL and I might unload in the near future.
Verizon (VZ) » Telecom: I’m still optimistic about the fiber rollout. The best wireless provider.
Yahoo (YHOO) » Internet Services: I think Yahoo is cheap compared to Google. Good search technology. Very good growth potential. Cheap.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) » Energy: The biggest energy player. Safe bet.
My current ETFs
Emerging Market Index (EEM) » International: It slowed down recently but still a good diverifier.
Europe Index Fund (EFA) » Europe: Recommended by S&P, good diversified holding.
Pacific, Excluding Japan (EPP) » Pacific: Recommended by S&P. A lot of potential growth.
Japan Index (EWJ) » Japan: Japan is recovering. Recommended by S&P.
US Telecom Sector (IYZ) » Telecom Sector: Telecom is a good defensive sector.
S&P Midcap 400 (MDY) » Midcaps: Recommended by S&P.
Spider Divident ETF (SDY) » Divident Focused: I am a big fan of companies that keep increasing their dividents. This ETF is focusing on that.
Vanguard Divident ETF (VIG) » Divident Focused: Similar story to SDY, divident focused with a little different lineup.
S&P Index (SPY) » S&P: Over the years, the S&P index beats most of the funds.
Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) » Energy: Is energy ever going to go down? Probably, but not anytime soon it looks like.
Vanguard Health Care (VHT) » Health Care: Baby boomers are starting to retire. Health care has very good growth potential.
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) » Consumer Staples: Even in a slow economy, people still need to buy everyday products. Good defensive player.
Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) » Bond: I hold it because it’s recommended by S&P. I do think that diversification in bonds is imporant.
Lehman 1-3yr Tresuries (SHY) » Bonds: Recommended by S&P.
Whoa, that took me some time. I have 3-5% in most of these, with around 7% for the S&P Index.
This is a good entry, link below, about the different cheap brokers out there. I am a fan of dollar-cost averaging, where you buy the same stock every month. That’s how ShareBuilder works. Now, according to the post, SogoInvest is a good competitor to it. I use InteractiveBrokers, which costs me $10 per month and I get 10 free trades. However, dollar-cost averaging is difficult, since I cannot buy portions of the share, as you can with ShareBuilder. In any case IB is cheap and I like it but I might consider SogoInvest later.
ReferenceSogoInvest.com – New Discount Brokerage, $3 Trades, MyMoneyBlog
SmartMoney is my favorite financial (monthly) magazine. I recently extended my subscription to it for additional four years. It cost me $16 for four years! That’s cheap, no? I do most of my magazine shopping on Ebay now. Can’t beat the prices.
Here is an offer for a Free subscription for SmartMoney (It looks like I’ll be covered untill 2013 
). All you have to do is sign up for a newsletter.
SmartMoney Free Subscription Offer, Lenovo PC Express
How is the economy doing? How is the defic going to impact US’s finances? Hear it from the experts. There is an interview from the experts on the state of the economy from Fidelity, From The Experts: Outlook For 2006. It’s very good.
Here are some excerpts.
Q:After peaking at $71 last September, oil prices retreated in the fourth quarter. What’s your outlook for the energy sector in 2006?Siegel: We won’t return to the good-old days of $40 a barrel. Given the vast energy needs of developing nations like China and India, we’ll see oil prices in the $50 to $60 range for years to come. On the upside, high energy costs may spark opportunities for firms that specialize in conservation. From an investment perspective, the energy sector will continue to perform well in 2006, though certainly not as well as over the past two years. I would recommend energy-related stocks be part—maybe 10%-20%—of every portfolio.
Q: The S&P 500 finished the year with a 3% gain, nearly six percentage points lower than 2004 performance. Has this late-stage bull market run out of steam?
Siegel: In every bull market, there’s a stretch when investors take a rest. During the huge 1990s bull market, ’94 was flat and ’98 was rocky. During the 1980s bull market, we had to endure the ’87 crash. Today, earnings are sound, values are good and I don’t think interest rates will rise dramatically. All this makes stocks look attractive in 2006.
ReferenceFrom The Experts: Outlook For 2006, Fidelity Newsletter (free)
I’m going to reveal it all. I’m going to reveal the stocks I own in my Interactive Brokers account. Why? Because that’s where I put my investing (not retirement) money. In the next post, I’ll tell you which ETFs I currently hold. I’m also going to tell you, in the next few posts, which stocks I currently like and that are not in my portfolio right now.
My 2006, Quarter I, Stock Holdings
Applebees (APPB) » Restaurant: ($24.5, S&P Rating: 4 stars; Good Value Line rating): Good stock to own in the restaurant business. Every time I go to Applebee’s, it is packed. I like its food, as well as its growth potential.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) » Networking: ($18.8, S&P Rating: 4 stars; Very good Value Line rating): Good, stable company. Good player in the tech industry. Fairly cheap.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) » Energy: ($61.3, S&P Rating: 5 stars, Great Value Line rating): Great company to own in this energy-starved world. The biggest, most diversified.
Fiserv (FISV) » Financial Computer Services: ($45.1, S&P Rating: 5 stars, Great Value Line rating): Great recommendations from S&P & Value Line. Good combination of tech, and financials.
General Electric (GE) » Multi-industry: ($33, S&P Rating: 3 stars, Good Value Line rating): Very good, diversified company. Great long-term potential. Good slow-moving economy player.
Home Depot (HD) » Home Improvement: ($40, S&P Rating: 5 stars, Great Value Line rating): Good company to own. Good growth potential.
Medtronic (MDT) » Health Care: ($57, S&P Rating: 3 stars, Great Value Line rating): Great Value Line rating. Besides that, I need to do a little more research.
Motorola (MOT) » Wireless Handsets: ($22.5, S&P Rating: 5 stars, Great Value Line rating): Good wireless player, diversified. They have cool phones in the pipeline. Gaining market share.
Oracle (ORCL) » Enterprise Services: ($12.4, S&P Rating: 4 stars, Great Value Line rating): Very good presence in the enterprise that’s just going to increase with PeopleSoft and Siebel acqusitions. I don’t like their price appreciation: read, slow appreciation.
Pfizer (PFE) » Drugs: ($26, S&P Rating: 3 stars, Good Value Line rating): Cheap. Good long-term holding. Good upcoming pipeline.
Time Warner (TWX) » Media & Internet Services: ($17.3, S&P Rating: 4 stars, Good Value Line rating): I believe content is the king and will eventually provide the most value. Time Warner is the leader in the industry. Plus, AOL seems to be on the right track with the portal and recent broadband initiatives.
Verizon (VZ) » Telecom: ($32.1, S&P Rating: 3 stars, Decent Value Line rating): I like Verizon’s long-term potential. I think fiber to house will be big. I think that Broadband to laptop will be big, I like their Wireless. It’s a good, value company. However, subscriber loses for landline will increase, holding the stock price a little.
Walmart (WMT) » Retail: ($45.8, S&P Rating: 5 stars, Very good Value Line rating): The gorilla in retail. Good to own in a slow economy, but I’m going to see if it is not too slow. Great ratings.
Yahoo (YHOO) » Internet Services: ($35.1, S&P Rating: 3 stars, Good Value Line rating): I like Yahoo. I like their services, their growth potential. It’s cheap compared to Google.
That’s it. Those are my stocks that I have invested in the last couple of years and will invest in the near future.
I went to a local library right after work today. This has become a weekly activity for me. Why? To read the latest S&P Outlook newsletter, and the latest issue of Value Line Investment Survey. These two newsletters are probably the best you’ll find. No question about it. They’re expensive, though. So that’s why I go to the library.
S&P Outlook (you can try it on-line for 30 days) ranks around 1000 stocks. Each stock has a rating of 1 to 5. 5 is the best (strong buy) and 1 is a strong sell. I’ve been following S&P Outlook for couple years now. I think I’m a better investor because of it. It just gives you a little bit more confidence in a company which you know has either a 4 or 5 rating. S&P Outlook is my favorite stock-picking resource.
I’ve always wanted to see Value Line stocks. Why? Because of the advertisement I receive from them, and also advertisements found in the SmartMoney magazine (which I also like). But over the last couple of weeks (several trips to the library), I’ve started to like Value Line more and more. I’m going to rely on it more from now on.
S&P Outlook gives you a list of good stocks. Value Line probably does as well. You know what I’m thinking. If I find stocks that are recommended in both resources, I might do even better. Not to mention the added confidence boost.
Did I find any valuable information from them? You bet, check out my latest stocks “of interest,” below.
Sorry. No data so far.
