My Investing Notebook :: Learning from the pros; making decisions on my own. ::

Not according to this chart.

This article, Is It Time to Buy a House Yet?, was part of today’s Must Read newsletter from Seeking Alpha (a good resource for investors). It caught my attention. I like to read stories about housing. But what really caught my attention was the chart you just saw.

Do we really have a few more years of downturn? I think so. I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. But as with everything, and especially money issues, you never know.

Mr. Smith does have some valid and interesting points. Here a few.

Simply put: if the bubble took seven years to reach its blow-off top, then its decline will typically take a similar length of time as prices fully retrace to pre-bubble levels.

As for supply: it is common knowledge that hundreds of thousands of homes are currently in the limbo of “shadow inventory”–homes the lenders won’t foreclose on for fear they can’t be sold, homes held off the market by owners who are deeply underwater on their mortgages, etc. As soon as demand appears, then supply rockets up as those anxious to sell move properties from the “shadow inventory” into the market.

Interesting article to read.